It's Time for the End of Health Insurance


My brother is about to lose his job. He'll join the record 16 million who have started down that path in the last three weeks.

It's the only formal job in his household, so he, his wife, and my two nephews are passing through the antechamber of a fragile-by-decree democracy into its great hall.  It's in that room, with the soaring frescoed domes and neolithic stylings, that wealthy America hides its signature trap door.

The trick is failure by and of design.

Letter to the Future XVII - The Sweet Quiet of Negative Success




"If you need to be right before you move, you will never win."

Dr. Michael Ryan, Exec Director, WHO
on the lessons from Ebola


15 March 2020

Dear Future -

Today, New York City announced an 80% increase in cases, in 24 hours. The curve of our detection capacity is, finally, starting to chase the curve of contagion. At 3,000 or so confirmed cases today, we have every reason to expect 10,000 by next weekend, as our national testing capacity comes online. Settling down to a 25% day over day increase for 31 days would mean an increase of a factor of 1,000 a month from now. The unofficial national motto has become 'flatten the curve.'

The Socialization of Risk

March 16, 2020

Let's talk about socialism - specifically, the socialization of risk. 

We're likely about to be asked to bail out the riskiest elements of the American energy sector. Others - like airlines and cruises - will line up after it.

A lot of human beings are looking down the barrel of job loss because of what's unfolding in markets. In energy, it's already savage. Oil sells for less than break-even production prices for a majority of the American energy market and Saudi Arabia is peacocking, saying it can knuckle-by at these levels for years. From Bloomberg: